marketcorollary

The almanac, interactive

The Coincidence Oracle

Ask it anything — "Should I invest in TSLA today?" — and it will answer the way the newsletters never dare: using only the factors that don't work. Mercury's motion, the moon's window, the year's zodiac animal, the groundhog's verdict, the sea level at the Battery, the marriage rate. Every number is real, drawn live from the same battery the Almanac tests. The result is a fully data-driven reading with precisely zero information in it. Satire — not investment advice.

The Oracle runs entirely in your browser on the page's embedded data — deterministic per day and per question, no servers consulted, no stars harmed. Rebuilt with fresh ephemeris and history on every site refresh.

ΔThe Omen Options Desk the strategy, specified to the decimal — then simulated so you never have to


You asked for the equation. Here it is, with nothing hidden: every omen's folklore direction, summed into a score, converted into a real options structure and run against 98 years of prices with honest Black-Scholes pricing and honest costs.

The equation structure

ωi(t) ∈ {−1, 0, +1}   each omen's folklore-claimed direction, if active today
S(t)  = Σi ωi(t)                     the omen score
D(t)  = sign S(t)                    direction — call if positive, put if negative
K     = 0.30-delta strike, T = 30 days to expiry
prem  = min(1.0%, 0.25%·|S(t)|) of equity     premium at risk
exit  at 7 DTE, or at ±50% option P&L, whichever comes first
px    = Black–Scholes, IV = 1.1× realized (floor 12%), pay 1.03× entering, take 0.97× leaving

Sixteen omens vote: the moon windows, three retrogrades, both halves of the calendar, Santa, Friday the 13th, eclipses, supermoons, the darkening days, the World Cup, shutdowns, and geomagnetic storms. Fully deterministic. No discretion anywhere.

What it would have done: 1928 → 2026

The omens, obeyed
$1,903
from $10,000 · -1.67%/yr · 3,712 trades · 34% winners
A coin flip, same structure
$2,883
identical contracts, random direction — the coin beats the omens
Doing nothing (buy & hold)
$4,119,454
the same $10,000 left alone

Options are synthetic before 1973 (listed options did not exist); prices are model prices, which flatters the strategy — real fills would be worse. Long options on a signal with no edge bleed the spread and the clock: the strategy loses about 11% per trade on average, and repeats 3,712 times. The omens' only measurable achievement is losing to a coin.

Why there is no order button

This page specifies the strategy to the decimal and then declines to walk you through placing it at Robinhood, Webull, Alpaca, IBKR or E*TRADE. That is deliberate. The difference between satire and financial advice is an order ticket — and the numbers above are the entire argument: followed faithfully for 98 years, the omens turned $10,000 into $1,903, a coin flip kept $2,883, and doing nothing became $4,119,454. A strategy that loses to a coin does not need a broker tutorial; it needs a museum placard. We are not licensed advisors and this is not investment advice — but if you take one instruction from this desk, let it be: close the app.

Questions this answers

Is this real investment advice?
No — emphatically, structurally, on purpose. The Oracle answers only from factors this site has tested and shown to predict nothing: retrogrades, moon windows, groundhogs, sea level, marriage rates. Every number it quotes is real; the advice is deliberately worthless. That is the entire point.
What data does the Oracle actually use?
The live ephemeris state (retrogrades, moon phase and windows, imminent eclipses), the full daily battery (27 indicators, 98 years), a conditional-history table of every day since 1928 matching today's exact celestial configuration, and honest correlations of annual returns against births, deaths, marriages, divorces and the sea level at the Battery. Nothing about any actual company.
Why build a deliberately useless oracle?
Because the useless oracle is honest about it. The Almanac shows these signals fail every statistical test; the Oracle lets you feel how persuasive they sound anyway. If it reads convincingly while citing pure noise, imagine what a confident newsletter can do.